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2026-09-23
IV Rank Regimes: Where We Are in the Cycle
Not financial advice. Verify claims independently.
VIX term structure + SPX IV rank context for the current quarter — the vol regime read.
The vol regime right now:
- SPX IV rank: elevated relative to the summer lows — pre-earnings-season + macro-data-week positioning
- VIX term structure: mostly contango with a slight kink at this week's events — normal pre-catalyst shape
- The regime call: we're in a "normal-elevated" vol regime — not panic, not complacency. Options premium is moderately rich across the board.
For vol traders: elevated IV rank = better prices for premium sellers, worse for buyers. The exception is event weeks where the front IV spikes specifically — selling that front premium is the IV-crush trade.
The caveat: regimes shift fast. Friday's jobs report can take "elevated" to "spike" in 30 minutes. Rehearse both regimes on Stock Picks.
Practice
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