2026-09-25
Micron's Historical IV Crush: What the Stats Say
Not financial advice. Verify claims independently.
Post-earnings vol collapse is MU's signature — the realized numbers from the last 8 prints.
MU is a textbook IV-crush name — one of the most predictable post-earnings vol patterns on the calendar:
- Average pre-earnings front-week IV: elevated to roughly 2x its normal level
- Average realized move: historically ~6-7%, below this cycle's ~9% implied
- Post-print IV collapse: typically 40-60% of the premium evaporates overnight
The trading read: if implied (9%) exceeds historical realized (6-7%), the options are priced for a bigger move than MU usually delivers — a mild edge for premium sellers if this print is normal. The 280% YTD run makes "normal" the question — this cycle may genuinely be bigger.
The edge is thin and the tail is fat. Rehearse the sell-premium and buy-premium sides on Stock Picks.
Practice
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